February 21st

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Bryce Harper – Update

Contrary to what we posted yesterday regarding the Giants’ willingness to go for a longer term deal, according to NBC Sports’ Alex Pavlovic, on his podcast today he reported that the Giants and an 11 year deal for Harper is very possible. It was previously reported that the Giants had only interest on a short term deal. Our guess would be that the giants were just using that as a negotiating tactic until Machado was signed. Now he is off the board, the checkbooks could be opened more.

With Spring Training games starting in the next couple of days, It is anticipated that Harper should sign in the next week.

Marwin Gonzalez – Rumor

The Minnesota Twins are said to be looking at close to a 3-year deal with super utility-man Marwin Gonzalez. With the last two extensions of Polanco and Kepler, the twins are looking to reinvest the money they are now saving from Mauer retiring. The twins are still projected to be quite a few games behind Cleveland for the AL Central. Adding Gonzalez could add some flexibility all around the entire diamond for relatively low cost.

Fernando Abad – Minor League Deal

Journeyman Fernando Abad has signed a minor league deal with the Giants, making him earn $800K if he makes the roster. Having been with 6 teams in 8 major league years, this will be his 7th. He used to be a solid middle inning arm from 2012 to 2014: posting a 3.69 FIP. From 2015 to 2017 (He was no in the majors in 2018) he posted a FIP of 4.41. Yikes.


Stat of the Day – Expected Stats

Expected Outcome stats help to remove defense and ballpark from the equation to express the skill shown at the moment of batted ball contact. By looking at the exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball, a Hit Probability is assigned based on the outcomes of comparable historic balls in play. By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit by pitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player’s season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.

TLDR: Baseball can be unforgiving: a liner can be hit directly at an outfielder, or a weak bloop can fall in for a double. Expected stats give a more clear view of what a batter or pitcher “earned”. 

Stat of the Day Curtesy of BaseballSavant.com

Header Photo Curtesy of Orange County Register

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