March 16th


Carlos Gonzalez – Signed

Today, a free agent thought to have had a place to go on a major league deal, signed a minor league deal with the Indians. Carlos Gonzalez used to be a staple in the middle of the Rockies lineup, but the past few years has slid back a bit. While he could make up to $2MM if he makes the big leagues, it is still risky if the Indians cut him in the next two weeks. Lets hope CarGo kept in shape over the offseason.


Gio Gonzalez -rumors

Gio Gonzalez, one of the top three free agents left, is now hearing some rumors of a Yankee connection. With Severino and CC Sabathia not ready for the season, they are looking to turn to two rookies: Domingo German, and Luis Cessa. While they are planning to have their regulars back by May, that is still over a month without them, and heaven forbid another starter go down during the season, you never can have too much pitching.




Stat of the Day – Hit Probability

Introduced before the 2017 season, Hit Probability is a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit.

Each batted ball is assigned a percentage based on how often comparable balls have become hits since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015, using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed. (As of January 2019, Hit Probability now factors in a batter’s seasonal Sprint Speed on “topped” or weakly hit” balls.) For instance, a line drive to the outfield with a Hit Probability of 70 percent is given that figure because balls with a similar exit velocity and launch angle have become hits seven out of 10 times since the implementation of Statcast.

Barrels — a metric introduced in 2016 — have a combination of exit velocity and launch angle that results in a minimum Hit Probability of 50 percent, though the Hit Probability of the average Barrel is much higher (82 percent).

Why it’s useful:Hit Probability tries to get to the heart of what a pitcher and hitter control while attempting to take out the effects of defense and ballpark. Setting aside foot speed for infield hits, a batter’s impact on whether the ball was a hit or an out ends as soon as the bat makes contact. Likewise, a pitcher cannot control what happens to a batted ball after it leaves the bat.

With knowledge of the probable outcome of each batted ball, an expected wOBA can be created for each player — factoring in non-contact figures like a player’s strikeout and walk rates.

TLDR: Hit probability is what it sounds like: the chance a hit would be a hit. Sometimes batters get lucky.


Stat of the Day Curtesy of MLB.com

Header Photo Curtesy of MLB.com

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